Reviewing regulations for space vehicle jettison debris in the Exclusive Economic Zone

The Ministry for the Environment commissioned Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research) to undertake an ecological risk assessment on the effects of space vehicle jettison debris on the EEZ.⁴ The report updated the 2017 risk assessment and assessed the ecological impact of jettisoned material from space vehicles. The assessment used updated information on the environment and real-life data from space vehicle launches in New Zealand.

The report assumed that the jettison debris from a 1 tonne space vehicle – Stage 1 and fairings – does not break up in the atmosphere and is deposited on the seabed. It assessed the potential for three environmental effects from the debris: direct strike causing mortality (death), noise disturbance and smothering of benthic organisms.

The report looked at the consequences of these effects on different groups of animals, plants and ecosystems within the EEZ and assessed the likelihood of each effect. The groups of animals and plants were:

• air-breathing fauna – this includes birds, whales, dolphins and other animals that breathe air
• the pelagic community – this includes fish, sharks and other animals and plants that live in the water column
• the demersal community – this includes animals and plants that live near or on the seabed
• benthic invertebrate community – this includes animals and plants that live on the seabed and do not have a backbone.

This assessment provided a risk rating for each ecosystem and each group of animals and/or plants.

^{4 Thompson D, Anderson O, Pinkerton M, Macpherson D, Steinmetz T, Faulkner L, Thomson T, Brough T, Rowden A. 2025. Ecological risk assessment of debris from space vehicle launches on the marine environment. Earth Sciences New Zealand Client report 2025291WN. Prepared for the Ministry for the Environment. Wellington: New Zealand.}

Direct strike causing mortality

The report assessed that risk levels for direct strike causing mortality (death) were low for up to 1,000 space vehicle launches jettisoning debris in most areas of the marine environment. Risks to animals and plants on seamounts were moderate at 1,000 launches.

Noise disturbance

Risk levels for noise disturbance were assessed as low for up to 1,000 space vehicle launches jettisoning debris in most areas of the marine environment. The risk of noise disturbance to animals and plants on seamounts was moderate at 1,000 launches.

Smothering of benthic organisms

Risk levels for smothering of benthic organisms were assessed to be low for up to 1,000 space vehicle launches jettisoning debris in most areas of the marine environment.

An initial economic study on New Zealand’s space and advanced aviation sector was undertaken by Deloitte in 2019. This study found that the space sector contributed $1.69 billion to the New Zealand economy in 2018/19 and supported the employment of 12,000 full-time equivalents.⁵

Deloitte undertook a follow-up economic study in 2025, aiming to understand how the space and advanced aviation sector has developed economically. The study found that the space market had grown 53 per cent since 2019, with an 8.9 per cent equivalent year-on-year growth. In total, the space sector contributed $2.47 billion to the New Zealand economy in 2023/24, and the sector’s employment contribution was around 17,000 full-time equivalents.⁶

Increasing the number of rocket launches permitted in New Zealand could significantly boost the space and advanced aviation sector’s contribution to economic growth. Permitting a greater number of launches would provide the sector with increased certainty, better supporting economic growth, compared with requiring a consent for each individual launch. More frequent launches could drive economic growth by attracting international investment, creating more high-skilled jobs, supporting the growth of local supply companies and fostering innovation across aerospace technologies. It would also strengthen New Zealand’s position as a globally competitive launch destination, leveraging its geographic advantages and regulatory agility, to support cutting-edge research and development.

The space and advanced aviation sector provides significant benefits to New Zealand’s research and development, domestic workforce and exports. The Deloitte study found that research and development comprises 11 per cent of the space sector, compared with the New Zealand average of 1.4 per cent in other sectors. New Zealand’s space sector is generally homegrown: 78 per cent of respondents to the economic study reported that more than half of their workforce is from New Zealand. In addition, 7 per cent of respondents identified as Māori businesses.⁷

The 2025 Deloitte economic study found that the New Zealand space and advanced aviation sector generated almost 29 per cent of its revenue from abroad, a higher export share than the New Zealand economy overall. Main export markets include Canada, Europe, India, Japan, Korea, Singapore and the United States of America.⁸

Rocket launches are an important anchor component of the New Zealand space and advanced aviation sector. If rocket launches are unable to continue or scale up, it could pose a significant risk to the growth and sustainability of the broader sector.

We expect adverse economic effects on other economic activities (including the interests listed below) to be low.

^{5 Deloitte Access Economics. 2019. New Zealand Space Sector: Its value, scope and structure (PDF, 1.9MB). Prepared for the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. Wellington: Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. p 35.}

^{6 Deloitte Access Economics. 2025. Innovation for growth: Charting the space and advanced aviation sectors (PDF, 4.6MB). Economic Study of the Space and Advanced Aviation Sector, prepared for the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. Wellington: Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. p 7.}

^{7 Deloitte Access Economics. 2025. Innovation for growth: Charting the space and advanced aviation sectors (PDF, 4.6MB). Economic Study of the Space and Advanced Aviation Sector, prepared for the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. Wellington: Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. p 33.}

^{8 Deloitte Access Economics. 2025. Innovation for growth: Charting the space and advanced aviation sectors (PDF, 4.6MB). Economic Study of the Space and Advanced Aviation Sector, prepared for the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. Wellington: Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. p 7.}

Existing interests are defined under section 4 of the EEZ Act. This includes both existing activities that are authorised under an Act or Regulations (eg, commercial fishing) and those that are not (eg, shipping). The definition of existing interests also includes Treaty settlements, including through the Treaty of Waitangi (Fisheries Claims) Settlement Act 1992 (Fisheries Settlement Act), and customary marine title and protected customary rights under the Marine and Coastal Area (Takutai Moana) Act 2011 (Takutai Moana Act) and other arrangements (such as the Ngā Rohe Moana o Ngā Hapu o Ngāti Porou Act 2019).

Shipping and maritime transport

Before and during a space vehicle launch, warnings are issued to ships through Notices to Mariners and radio transmissions. These advise ships of debris hazard zones, areas where debris jettisoned during space vehicle launches is estimated to land. Ships may choose to move out of the debris hazard zone during the time debris is expected to land. 

The debris hazard zones are in remote areas of the EEZ off the east coast of the North and South islands. Automatic identification system tracking of ships shows little maritime traffic in the area where debris may land. Figure 3 shows the shipping density in New Zealand’s EEZ; most traffic is concentrated in coastal areas, with low levels of traffic in the area where debris is jettisoned.

Figure 3: Shipping density around New Zealand from July 2018 to June 2019

^{Source: Land Information New Zealand}

Of the few vessels that travel through the debris hazard zones, most are cargo or fisheries vessels.

Increased debris deposition may mean ships need to move out of debris hazard zones more frequently, increasing costs and journey times. However, given the small number of ships that travel through or into the debris hazard zones, this effect is anticipated to be low.

Commercial fisheries

Space vehicle debris is likely to be deposited in several areas designated as a fishery management area (FMA) under the Fisheries Act 1996: FMA2, FMA4, SOE (Southeast Chatham Rise), FMA3, SEC (Southeast Coast) and FMA6, SUB (Subantarctic).

An increase in launch debris deposition requiring debris hazard zones may affect the ability to exercise commercial fishing rights. Fishing ships may decide to move out of the debris hazard area or avoid it entirely, affecting their ability to catch fish. However, the automatic identification system tracking of ships in the debris hazard zones shows few vessels travelling into or through the debris hazard zones. This suggests not much fishing activity that could be displaced, meaning any effect of increased launches is anticipated to be low.

Māori interests

Māori have a cultural, economic and spiritual relationship with the marine environment. This relationship is grounded in whakapapa (ancestry) and expressed through tikanga (custom) and kaitiakitanga (guardianship).

The EEZ contains spiritual pathways in te ao Māori, such as the area between Te Rerenga Wairua (at the top of the North Island) and Manawatāwhi (Three Kings Islands). This area is excluded from the current authorised launch deposit area. Māori consider the health of the ocean to be intrinsically linked to the wellbeing of people. They exercise kaitiakitanga over marine taonga (cultural treasures) within their rohe moana (customary fishing areas), which may extend into the EEZ. This includes responsibilities to protect and restore the mauri (life force) of the marine environment, and to maintain intergenerational knowledge and cultural practices associated with the sea.

Māori have fisheries interests in the EEZ through the Fisheries Settlement Act, including commercial quota holdings, customary fishing rights, and ownership stakes in fisheries companies. Māori also hold rights under the Takutai Moana Act, although this applies only to the territorial sea. Increased space vehicle jettison debris could impact the exercise of commercial fishing quota allocated under the Fisheries Settlement Act (see the Commercial fisheries section for more detail).

Rocket debris from space launches poses a low risk to marine species up to 1,000 launches (see the Environmental effects section for more detail).

Customary fishing takes place within rohe moana (defined customary fishing areas) of tangata whenua. Limited information exists about how increased launch debris deposition within affected rohe moana would affect how Māori interact with, harvest or manage customary resources. Effects may be similar to those for commercial fisheries and shipping. Based on the low level of activity in the debris hazard zones, the effect of increased launches is anticipated to be low.

Treaty settlements and other arrangements are considered existing interests under the EEZ Act. For the debris hazard areas, these include:

• Moriori Claims Settlement Act 2021
• Ngā Rohe o Ngā Hapū o Ngāti Porou Act 2019
• Ngāi Tahu Claims Settlement Act 1998
• Treaty of Waitangi (Fisheries Claims) Settlement Act 1992 and Māori Fisheries Act 2004.

Oil, petroleum and resource extraction

No petroleum permits have been issued for the authorised launch deposit area.

One mineral mining permit is active in the authorised launch deposit area, on the Chatham Rise. This permit grants exclusive rights to mine phosphorite nodules, but no mining activity is currently taking place in the area. A marine consent is required for any future mining activity.

An increase in space vehicle jettison debris would not have any effects on oil, petroleum and resource extraction. Any operators considering applying for exploration or mining permits in the authorised launch deposit area may need to consider the potential for space vehicle jettison debris to be deposited in the area they are interested in.